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Articles from Baseball Intellect

The Future of Yovani Gallardo 2008-04-24 15:00:05 What makes Gallardo so good? 1. He makes batters miss. Since 2006, Gallardo has struck out about 32% of the batters he faced, and last year in Triple-A, that rate reached 35 percent. This is excellent. 2. He has plus command. Gallardo's walk percentage at the higher minor league levels was between eight and nine percent, which is a little high, but his ratio of strikeouts to walks was between 3.0 and 4.5. Again, this is excellent." To find the full path for this article, please click here ...

Breaking Out to Overrated: Colvin vs. Fowler 2008-04-24 11:00:05 These numbers show a very poor showing of plate discipline. The problems are exacerbated in that Colvin is not a true contact hitter. His K% for the three levels listed above are between 18 and 21. The significance of this is that Colvin will need to hit for a high average to maintain an acceptable OBP. The strikeouts put a cap on his batting average. As for the type of contact Colvin makes, his BABIP was .356 in A+ Daytona and .337 at AA Tennessee. Those are solid rates, but don't stand out when you compare them to other top prospects or other prospects that can RAKE. If you expect Colvin to be a .270 hitter in the majors, we shouldn't expect his OBP to be any more than .300. To continue reading the rest of this article, click here ...

Pitching Mechanics: Ian Kennedy's Tempo 2008-04-21 02:30:05 Tempo is defined as "the speed in which a pitcher can go from the point to where their knee reaches its upper most point (or when it starts to move downward) to the time of release." Tempo can be measured in frames. Kennedy's tempo is basically the definition of average. Frame 5 is when his knee reaches its upper most point before heading downward. Frame 31 is when Kennedy finally releases the ball. To continue reading the rest of this article, click here ...

The Most Overrated Pitching Prospects in Baseball 2008-04-17 11:15:05 Continuing our 2008 Prospect Preview Series, I suspect the next this list will generate the most negative feedback from fans. Below are pitchers that make up who I think are among the most overrated pitching prospects in baseball. Most of these prospects are among the top-150 prospects in baseball. Not all talent evaluators rate these players high, but many do and I want to examine why they do. With that said, let's get started To continue reading the rest of this article, click here ...

Francisco Liriano One Year Later: What's Changed? 2008-04-14 02:59:05 The major differences are boiled into two still images. An aggressive fury of power and momentum on the left and a safer, controlled action on the right. My opinion? I prefer guys with aggressive mechanics but to do everything possible to lower the risk of injury without hurting the quality of the pitcher's stuff. You have a risk/reward scenario here. If I had a choice of: A.) taking the pre-injury Liriano with the pre-injury mechanics or B.) taking Liriano with "safer" mechanics but producing only #3 starter stuff I would take choice A. Any starter that can give you quality innings is valuable, but true #1 starters, true aces are of an extremely rare breed. So I take my chances. The question I have is if his mechanics can be altered to where the quality of his stuff rises close to where it was before, but also lessens the risk of injury. To continue reading the rest of this article, click here ...

Swing Overhaul: The Adjustments of Chris Cohglan 2008-04-12 16:17:39 Thoughts about his draft swing - upright stance with a lower body action that is not condusive to power; a knee twist (frame 7) that is meant to open his hips, though the hips open up too soon and he doesn't do a good job shifting his weight foward into foot plant. His swing is short, but he makes contact a little too far out in front. In frame 14, you can see how much "extension" he gets out in front, which is a trait that won't generate much power. Also take note of his swing plane, which is pretty linear without much loft. Compare to his swing from last year in the Sally League All-Star Game: To find the path to the full length article, please click here ...

Hitting Prospects to Watch in 2008 2008-04-10 16:57:25 Continuing our 2008 Prospect Preview Series, last week we looked at six pitchers to watch in 2008, so it would only be appropriate to do the same for hitters. A selection of the article below: "Gamel sprays line drives to all fields and has the ability to hit for a moderately high average. Compare his swings from 2006 (left) and 2007 (right) and see if you can spot any differences:" To find the path for the full article, please click here ...

Breaking Down Phillies Prospect Carlos Carrasco 2008-04-08 13:31:51 Instead of one big problem that Carrasco has to work on, it is a bunch of smaller mechanical/consistency issues he must work on. He got off to a good start in AA with a 5 inning, 7 K and 2 BB performance. Hopefully, he will build on that start. He has the potential to have two plus pitches and another above average offering. But much work needs to be done. Let him develop his pitches, continue to tweak his mechanics, and don't rush him before he is ready. The most realistic scenario for Carrasco is as a #3/4 starter, but the capability to breakout in a big way is still a possibility. To continue reading the full video breakdown of Carrasco, please click here ...

Scouting Rangers Prospect Chris Davis 2008-04-05 16:03:59 Read the in-depth scouting report on Texas Rangers prospect Chris Davis... It is clear that Davis is not a finished product, but his numbers have been extremely impressive thus far in his career. The beautiful thing is that he is only 21 years old, so he has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments if he needs to... To continue reading the rest of this article, click here ...

Pitching Prospects to Watch in 2008 2008-04-03 13:24:45 Continuing our 2008 Prospect Preview Series, we look at six pitchers that could be popping up on top-100 prospect lists after this season is all said and done. "Spoone is a work horse. He'll walk his share of batters, but if he can maintain a solid K-rate to go along with the many GB's he is going to throw, then there is a possibility he can reach his upside of a #2 starter. His mentality and work ethic give him a better a chance of reaching that upside." To find the path for the full article, please click here... ...

Home Bailey - Ace or Talented Underachiever? 2008-04-02 13:18:18 As sort of a preview to the upcoming articles about the most overrated prospects in baseball, I wanted to look at a pitcher that I tend to think talent evaluators overrate: Homer Bailey. The questions I have about Bailey are more in relation to his overall numbers and his mental make-up than about the quality of his stuff. When he's at his best, Bailey's fastball can be electric. He can consistently pump 95, 96, and 97 mph fastballs by hitters and the pitch can have a sneaky quality to it as it explodes out of Bailey's hand. This past year, however, Bailey saw his velocity drop and his control regress.... To continue reading the rest of this article, click here... ...

Mid-Level to Top-10 - Who Makes the Jump? 2008-03-29 12:22:21 Continuing our 2008 prospect preview series, today we focus on the mid-level prospects that I think stand an excellent chance to make the leap into their respective organization's top-10 prospects. So we have no confusion, I am defining a mid-level prospect as a player who falls mostly into the 10 - 20 range of a team's top prospect list and who grade out to around a C+/B- on the prospect grade scale. For the players in this article, I am not predicting they will develop into one of the top 3 or 4 prospects in their respective organization (though a few could), but they will catapult themselves into the 5 - 9 range of a team's top prospect list. With that said, lets get started. To continue reading this article, please click here... ...

What Happened to Jason Bay? 2008-03-29 12:19:10 One of the big mysteries of the 2007 season was the decline of Pirates' OF Jason Bay. The question everybody has is how it happened. Was it injuries? Bay did battle knee discomfort for much of the 2007 season and was coming off arthroscopic knee surgery from the previous offseason. However, Bay has said his knee only bothered him when playing the field and had no effect on his season. Did he just have a down year? Another possibility. Perhaps he has just begun his decline as players with his skill set seem to decline at a faster and earlier rate. Lets begin with his numbers from the last two seasons: To continue reading this article, please click here... ...

The Powerful Hip Rotation of Prince Fielder... 2008-03-29 12:17:15 This article is made in conjunction with the piece about a hitter's toe touch and foot plant. The importance of toe touch and foot plant relates to a hitter's timing and efficiency in their hip rotation. Mechanics for both pitchers and hitters are interesting in how such subtle changes to a player's mechanics can drastically change the results a player is getting. Everything needs to be in sync and needs to be a natural act...mechanics need to come instinctively without thinking. The toe touch and foot plant should be in sync with one of the major sources of a hitter's power: the hip rotation. Frame-by-frame, lets see how Prince Fielder does it: To continue reading this article, please click here... ...

Hitting Mechanics: Foot Plant and Toe Touch 2008-03-29 12:16:06 Toe Touch is defined as the first point in which the batter's foot touches the ground. The exact point of toe touch (and foot plant for that matter) can be difficult to pick up, but you should have a general idea of where toe touch first occurs. Below is a clip of Derrick Lee's toe touch which precedes his foot plant: To continue reading this article, please click here... ...