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My turn - predictions for 2008 2007-12-12 14:31:51 Okay, Chris had his say on what he thinks for 2008, so it’s my turn.   Then we’ll see what happens (No pressure, Morgan!) Reality Land is where we need to be.   The hard thing to figure out is, in the third inning of a double header, where’s the game going to end up.    Before I tell you my view of where the market is heading, let me tell you a couple of things first: 1. My business is up about 32% compared to last year. 2. My phone is still ringing. 3. My biggest closing month this year will be December. and I’ve been preaching reality land to my referral sources and customers all year, so I don’t want to hear anything about having to be a Lawrence Yun wannabe to succeed in today’s market.    Okay, here’s where I think we’re going to be in 2008: 1. One of the “BIG 2″ won’t exist at the end of the year.   Whether it’s bankruptcy or more likely a “forced marriage” I don’t know, but ...

What happens to us in 2008? 2007-12-12 04:00:23 With WaMu and Countrywide “on the ropes,” but giving us that dreaded assurance that “everything is fine,”  what’s going to happen in 2008 for the industry and Originators?   It seems that only Freddie Mac has a picture of the depth of the situation that we’re in, while much of our reeling industry sees something like a Recovery in 2008. I want to know what the truth is gonna be in 2008–and I don’t have all the answers.   My basic assumptions: 75% of the people employed TODAY in retail mortgage banking are gone. Loan To Value will be capped at 80% for most loans.  This will be done because  MI will double or more in price, seeing as MGIC is only being saved (through no fault of their own) by the fact that the worst of the loans were done on 80/20 combos. Only the best loans will get done, and the bar will keep being raised. We’ll see a 12-14%  one year decline in property values. Refinance transactions (where 70% of the probl ...

Never a dull moment with the Fed”¦.. 2007-12-12 03:29:03 I just got this from the Wealth Management Group at my bank….. An announcement at 9:01am eastern from the Fed that it is working in conjunction with the central banks of England, Canada, Switzerland and Europe to hold several special auctions over the next 60 days to inject liquidity into financial markets by holding auctions to that would buy a “wide variety” of short-term fixed income securities  (…this is something the Fed did after 9/11 to inject liquidity into financial markets).  Further, the Fed said it may make this a permanent program.As a result, the fixed income markets are responding by greatly lowering the yield differential between Treasuries and spread product (i.e - lower borrowing rates for institutions) - and - stock market futures are rocketing higher (i.e - the S&P 500 Futures going from +14 prior to the announcement to currently at +30). What a 24 hour period… For our clients, we would say that the Fed perhaps accelerated the ...

Slate Calles Out Lawrence Yun as Canidate for Worst Forecaster of All Time 2007-12-11 09:00:19 Mr. Gross has a great article on the folly that is the NAR housing forecasts that have been continually revised downward umpteen times to the delight of blogs such as Housing Panic, this one and others.  Personally I think Slate took a soft line; as the revisions don’t just highlight one man’s tough job of balancing the demands of a trade group who will gladly challenge any Jones Town wannabes to a kool aid drinking contest at the drop of a hat. Rather, they point to potential criminal malfeasance foisted upon the American public by those that would benefit most from the misinformation. From Slate: But within the fraternity of financial and fiscal forecasters, the seers at the National Association of Realtors”?longtime chief economist David Lereah and his successor Lawrence Yun”?may be uniquely ill-equipped to deliver sobering forecasts. They work for a trade group whose mission is to buck up the spirits of real-estate brokers. And real-estate brokers” ...

The Fed cut rates by .25% 2007-12-11 08:33:35 And the Dow dropped 144 points in the first 14 minutes!  The market didn’t get what they wanted from the Fed today. More later……. Share This ...

Obsessed 2007-12-11 08:16:17 Did anyone else notice the sexy theme on Sellsius this last week? What’s with those guys? Geez, get a room! Here’s one they missed….. Hometown Hottie/Real Estate “Executive” Monica White More photos of Monica (probably not work-safe). Another real estate Monica The most beautiful people in Las Vegas ...

Countrywide Continues to Bail Water 2007-12-10 19:19:51 Countrywide continues to tighten its lending guidelines as investors stay away from its securitized loan offerings on the secondary market. In fact, the majority of Countrywide fundings have been financed by the Federal Home Loan Bank - causing Senator Schumer to call for an investigation in to the transactions. In an effort to improve the saleability of their loans and to increase the quality of loans originated Countrywide is making wholesale changes to its lending guidelines. Of particular interest are the elimination of the No Income No Asset (NINA) loans and the No ratio products for both Alt-A and Jumbo loan products. From the Company to brokers: Due to Agency guideline revisions, CAWL is implementing the following changes effective midnight (pst) Monday, December 10, 2007. æ Expanded Criteria (Conforming ALT-A) Guideline Changes No Ratio & NINA Doc Types Eliminated æ Expanded Criteria (Jumbo) Guideline Changes NINA Doc Type Eliminated No Ratio Doc Type Guide ...

Job Cuts Reach 80,000 2007-12-10 19:18:41 Previously, Morgan reported that the infamous Mortgage Implode-O-Meter reached the 200 mark! The saying, Another one bites the dust! seems to be the norm these days. Well, Inman News reported earlier today that the number of job cuts in the mortgage lending profession has reached a staggering 81,681 year-to-date; more than six times the total of last year’s number when it was at 12,874. Inman further went on to say: “We probably have not seen the last of financial job cuts tied to the housing slump and subsequent collapse in the credit markets,” said the firm’s chief executive officer, John Challenger, in a statement. “In fact, many analysts are waiting for a major announcement from Citigroup in the coming weeks that some say could impact as many as 45,000 jobs.”� In real estate — where many layoffs are not publicly disclosed — 3,275 layoffs have been announced for the year to date, Challenger reported… “It could be ...

WaMu’s troubles”¦.. 2007-12-10 15:33:53 Ouch - in my previous positions as a loan officer for smaller community banks, I sold a LOT of loans to Washington Mutual (including the one on my own house!).    Check out this article for details, and also check out what Housing Wire has to say about it here.    Here’s my take on it: 1.  Washington Mutual is making some drastic moves in a time where the market is changing dramatically.   It’s a life saving effort, and it’s one that they have to do.    Will it work?   I don’t know.   Is it enough?   I doubt it, I think we’ll see more from them in the future. 2. If Washington Mutual is feeling that much pain right now, what is happening over at Countrywide right now? 3. For years, Washington Mutual was one of the major forces in the wholesale and correspondent lending fields, at least in my neck of the woods (Western Michigan).   I think we should all go back and take another look at Morgan’s post “Dead Man Walking” b ...

Toronto Commercial Real Estate 2007-12-10 15:33:47 Almost 900,000 Square Feet Leased In November Toronto Real Estate Board Members reported another active month, with 895,632 square feet of space leased through the TorontoMLS system, Commercial Council Chair Garry Lander announced today. “This is a nine per cent increase over October’s figure of 821,889.” Industrial space continued to trade within a narrow range in November, averaging $5.63 sfn for all size categories. Commercial/Retail space traded for $14.63 sfn, also within its standard range. Sales and Market Highlights In November, TREB Members recorded 71 sales on Industrial/Commercial properties, of which 37 were Industrial properties in all size categories these averaged $137.32 per square foot. Which compares to a price of $96.30 per square foot derived from Non-MLS sources. See Full Report [in PDF format]. ...

Thanks Morgan! 2007-12-10 14:47:12 Hey Morgan, Thanks for inviting me to join the Blown Mortgage writers.   I’ve been a reader for quite some time and I’ve learned a lot and look forward to continuing to discuss the issues that are affecting the mortgage industry now and in the future.  A couple of quick thoughts to introduce me and then I’ll write more and tell more as time goes on.    I got my start in the industry in June of 1988 (at the age of 12!) when I started my career as a Realtor with a local real estate firm.   I spent 3 1/2 years doing that and then there was this little thing called a housing downturn through the Persian Gulf War (the first one) that caused me to look into other lines of work (not selling a house for 6 months tends to do that.)   So, that’s how I got my start in the wonderful world of mortgage lending.    Since 1991, I’ve worked for 2 large banks and three small ones, always on the retail side and always in originations.    I went from a large b ...

The home buyers’ wish list 2007-12-10 13:25:49 Have you ever gone to the grocery store without a shopping list and come home with products that piqued your fancy “? a bag of potato chips, perhaps, or a half-gallon of fudge ripple “? but no coffee or bread or other item you know you needed? It’s okay; we have too. But what’s acceptable in the aisles of the local Loblaws or Sobeys is not such a good idea when you’re spending a hundred thousand dollars or more on a house. That’s why savvy home buyers make lists before they begin looking at specific houses. It’s a great tool for determining what you want, what you need, and what compromises you’re willing to make. Your list can take many forms. Some buyers jot down the amenities they need (e.g., type of construction, number of bedrooms, a garage or fenced yard) and the amenities they want (e.g., a large kitchen or master bathroom with jetted tub). Others rank specific amenities along a continuum of desirability. Either way, such lists ...

Welcome Tom! 2007-12-10 08:43:10 Today we welcome Tom Vanderwell as a new contributor to the growing Blown Mortgage team of writers. I’ll let Tom tell you all about his background; but with more than 20 years in the business I’m looking forward to his insights here. Welcome aboard Tom! Share This ...

Does Word-of-Mouth Help Find a Buyer in Real Estate? 2007-12-05 01:59:51 For Sale By Owner website helps home owners find buyers by launching their Refer-a-Friend program. November 30, 2007 — Fizber.com, a premier FSBO website, has launched its new Refer-a-Friend Program for all existing customers and their real estate agent associates. The new incentive program encourages current customers to recommend the website’s services to their friends, families and business associates. In return, Fizber.com offers free featured listings for a week. Home sellers are invited to participate in the “Friend of Fizber” program to upgrade the placement of their listing within the Fizber.com search results. The program works as follows: To thank their users for participating in this “Friend of Fizber” campaign Fizber awards them with one point each time they tell a friend /colleague about Fizber.com. By collecting “Friend of Fizber” points they guarantee that their listing will be l ...

Real Estate Search Widget for Mac OS: Find Your New Home Right From Your Desktop 2007-12-05 01:56:37 November 28, 2007 — There are widgets for weather forecasts, stock trackers, calculators, sports scores - and now one can get a widget for their real estate needs. FSBO website Fizber.com this week released a new home search widget for Mac users. The Fizber Macintosh Dashboard Widget is a small application one can run on their Mac OS X to get instant access to real estate properties listed online. Widgets are mini-applications that you download and install into dashboard to add new functionality. They allow users to easily and quickly access information and tools that they commonly use. Widgets themselves aren’t new, but they are fairly new to real estate businesses. Julia Foster from Fizber.com says, “Fizber Mac Widget is a quick and easy way to keep your Home Search handy on your Mac OS X Dashboard. Great for home hunters who need to find a house fast or just daydreaming about their next home.” Besides, Home Search Widget allows real estate agents and brokers ...