Thoughts on the World
Opinion and analysis of current events: Politics, global warming, alternative energy and more. A realistic, moderate (but slightly left leaning) look at the world. |
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Articles from Thoughts on the World |
Why I am Voting Clinton – And Not Voting Obama
2008-02-04 17:34:00
Considering tomorrow I vote, it’s time to make an endorsement. It’s going to Hillary Clinton.Reason 1 – The (foreign policy) issuesI prefer Hillary Clinton’s positions to those of Barack Obama’s. I disagree with Mike Gravel’s positions so much that I won’t even mention his name in the rest of this article.Clinton has superior reasoning on nearly every major issue. Her positions on social issues may be slightly different than mine, but the president does not control domestic issues: Congress does.Instead, the president controls foreign policy and the military. Therefore, those are the most important issues in the presidential contest. Barack Obama doesn’t understand international issues as well as Clinton does. He would rather see the U.S. as a weaker state abroad; Clinton knows that the U.S. must sometimes project its power.Reason 2 – Hope is not as important as the issuesAs Massachusetts legislator Salvatore F. DiMasi put it, "To be perfectly honest, I really don't ...
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Rudy G Drops Out - Why?
2008-01-30 18:48:00
Why would Rudy Giuliani bother dropping out now?Sure, he invested a lot in Florida, and his crushing loss surely didn't help his campaign. But he still had a lot of support in different Super Tuesday contests. He might as well have stayed on for another week.Some will point to his campaign’s money troubles. But lets dig a little deeper.Thinking VPDuring his concession speech, Giuliani endorsed current Republican frontrunner John McCain. One could take this at face value; Giuliani supports McCain’s positions and values.Politicians don’t think like that. You’ve got to put yourself in Rudy’s shoes. What’s the closest thing to the presidency? That whole vice-presidency thing.And it’s looking even better for Giuliani. McCain will take office at age 73, the oldest president ever, I believe. If the former Prisoner of War gets conked out, so to speak, Giuliani would get exactly what he had wanted from the beginning: the most powerful job on Earth.
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Hoping That Arab Governments Are Blamed
2008-01-28 16:19:00
On Wednesday I wrote “Hoping Hamas is Blamed.” It’s pretty obvious now, just as it was then, that Hamas isn’t going to be blamed and Israel’s plan will not succeed. Luckily, a new possible scapegoat has joined the herd – other Arab governments.The predicamentEgypt’s been left with quite a problem; Hamas will not allow the Egyptian government to shutdown the border peacefully. That leaves them with essentially two options. Option number one of the Egyptians is to shut their border with Gaza down by force. The problem with this, in their view, is that it (a) possibly destabilizes the region (b) infuriates relatives of Palestinians in Egypt.Option number two is allowing continued free passage between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. This would upset Israel and the U.S. As well, it could draw the ire of many Egyptians if Gazans become perceived as unwelcome guests.A new scapegoatUnless Gazans point their fingers at Hamas in retaliation for their poor situation, there is another grou ...
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Romano Who?
2008-01-24 15:41:00
BBC: Italian PM Romano Prodi ResignsIt’s too bad that nobody cares.Italy has lost all of its geopolitical influence to corruption and organized crime. It withdrew its soldiers from Afghanistan in 2006; it’s not involved in Iraq.
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Hoping That Hamas Is Blamed
2008-01-23 16:42:00
Reuters: Palestinians blow up border wall, flood into EgyptWell, it had to happen sometimes. And its too late to change course.Israel’s strategyIsrael has been attempting to isolate Hamas and make their government in Gaza look like a failure. Israel, the U.S., and other western powers have been bolstering Mahmoud Abbas’s (semi-)democratic government in the West Bank to solidify this image.The mistake of the strategy – or not?Israel has been making life in Gaza miserable for Gazans, and life will only become exponentially worse in the following weeks and months.By increasing poverty, unemployment, and general dissatisfaction in Gaza, the West is creating the perfect situation for terrorism to grow. Terrorism is like a disease: it grows on dissatisfaction. Israel and the United States will be blamed for the bad conditions. Unless, of course Israel and the West aren’t blamed, and instead, the Hamas government is. That is the Ehud Olmert’s hope, at least.It’s too late nowThis b ...
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Does the U.S. Have a Moral Obligation in Iraq?
2008-01-22 10:20:00
Let's pretend the U.S. pulled out of Iraq in the coming months because the President had a huge change of heart. 90% of our troops are gone, by, let's say July 2009.What happens then?Let's say, for the sake of discussion, all out civil war breaks out in Iraq, but is limited to that country.Hundreds and thousands of Iraqis are dying every day, every week, every month. Does the U.S. have a moral obligation to step in and try to resolve the fighting?Or instead, do we sit back and watch, and wait for the rest of the region to potentially join in?
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What do New Iranian Sanctions Mean?
2008-01-21 18:13:00
BBC: Iran sanctions accord 'imminent' These would be the first sanctions after the last National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear activities, and the first after the infamous Strait of Hormuz incident.The chance of sanctions be successfully applied will depend on China and Russia’s willingness to press Iran further after the NIE. U.S. intentionsThese sanctions are intended to pressure Iran to answer vital questions about its nuclear program. Iran has promised to do this, but one can expect the usual responses.Iranian responseWill this provoke Iran or will this further compel the Islamic state to give up its program? If sanctions are passed, this will most definitely pressure Iran by showing the world’s unity against its nuclear program, especially understanding that the sanctions would come after the NIE.Effect on Iranian electionsLegislative elections are coming in March. Will this have an effect? I don’t know enough about Iranian politics to make a very well in ...
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The Real Republican Winner in Nevada
2008-01-20 09:35:00
As much as I hate saying it (and I really do hate saying it), I'd say the real winner on the Nevada Republican side yesterday was Ron Paul. He came in a far second behind Mitt Romney, who was the only candidate to really contest this race. And yet, Paul did better than many mainstream candidates.On another note, it looks like Fred Thompson is out of it. That's too bad, because I liked him, for a Republican candidate.
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A Plan for Pakistan
2008-01-17 16:08:00
Our troops are sitting on the Afghan-Pakistan border, staring across from the Afghan side. They can practically see Taliban strongholds. Why don’t they attack?That was my opinion only yesterday. The only other option, as I saw it, was to sit back and watch.Sitting back and watching isn't the only option other than attacking: we can be proactive. We can build alliances with tribal leaders, help the average Pakistani, promote democracy, etc.Going into Pakistan and targeting high value targets might seem smart in the short run, but in the long run, the consequences would be disastrous. Number one, we might not even get the target; number two, we would enrage local leaders, who would distrust us for years to come; and three, we would create new terrorists by giving current terrorists easy propaganda.On the other hand, we could make alliances with local leaders, promote democracy, or in other words, gain the support of the Pakistani people. With the Pakistani people supporting us, suppor ...
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A 'Mini-Surge' in Afghanistan
2008-01-15 17:58:00
U.S. sending 3,200 Marines to AfghanistanThis is very smart move by the U.S. government – though there are some complications.A brief backgroundAfghanistan has been off the radar here in the U.S.; nearly all policy discussions have been over Iraq. That is, until recently, when the possibility of this ‘Afghanistan surge’ came up.Afghanistan has needed the equivalent of a small surge for a while; growing drug problems (no pun intended), a Taliban comeback in the south, and a destabilized Pakistan to the east have all complicated NATO’s mission in Afghanistan.Even still, NATO allies have been reluctant to send more troops, even after repeated requests by the U.S.A good ideaNot only does this ‘mini surge’ have the potential to solve many stability issues in Afghanistan, it also could encourage other countries to send more troops to Afghanistan. Or, in the case of Canada, influence their decision of whether or not to pull out all of their troops.But back to the surge’s potenti ...
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How Clinton Pulled it Off
2008-01-09 19:06:00
After Clinton’s stunning comeback yesterday, it is important to ask the question: How did Hillary win (and how did the polls get it so wrong)?She didn’t have one silver bullet that boosted her performance; it was a combination of many things:• Her superior organization• The female vote• Clinton’s cry• The over hype of Obama (this answers the second part of the question)In that order. Her organization, her money and her endorsements helped her raise awareness and to get out the vote. Specifically, the women vote. About 57% of New Hampshire voters that voted Democrat were women. They carried Clinton out from behind (interesting to note: Obama received the majority of women’s vote in Iowa).Now, I tried not to get into to this to much when I saw it online, but a lot of analysis are claiming Hillary got the sympathy vote for when she teared up. Interestingly enough, Mitt Romney did the same thing, albeit a few months ago, and didn’t come out from behind. It’s more likely ...
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A Clinton Comeback -- Again?
2008-01-08 19:48:00
I've been watching the polls for the last hour, and it looks like Clinton could maintain her 4 or 5% lead. That would be huge for her campaign. HUGE. Political Realm, really my source for campaign news (other than the mainstream media), predicted Obama winning by 12%, and I had Obama winning as well. Probably most pundits too. It would be an incredible boost to her campaign.
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