Thoughts on the World
Opinion and analysis of current events: Politics, global warming, alternative energy and more. A realistic, moderate (but slightly left leaning) look at the world. |
|
Statistics
Unique Visitors:
Total Unique Visitors:
Outgoing:
Total Outgoing: |
11
0
38
1773
|
|
|
Articles from Thoughts on the World |
Energy Bill Phases Out Incandescent Lightbulbs, Increases CAFE Standards, and Expands Renewable Energy Mandate
2007-12-18 17:18:00
The House has passed the energy bill passed in the Senate, which had been modified to take out $20 billion in tax breaks for clean energy.But what are other key provisions of this bill?CAFE increase• Increases the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) to 35 miles per gallon by 2020• Automakers can trade credits to achieve this standard• According to government estimates, it could lower U.S. crude oil usage by 2 million barrels a day - 8% - by 2030 and save American families an average of $700 to $1000Renewable Energy Mandate• Expands biofuel mandate to 36 billion gallons by 2022, versus 6.5 billion gallons today• Caps ethanol from corn at 15 billion gallons – the rest must come from cellulosic sourcesEfficiency and Research• Increases the efficiency of buildings, homes, appliances, and lighting, carbon dioxide emissions 75 percent, which will save homeowners an estimated $400 billion by 2030• Incandescent lightbulbs phased out by 2020, cutting energy use from lightbulbs ...
|
Bali: What was achieved?
2007-12-17 16:56:00
On Wednesday we published an article, “What to Expect at Bali: Nothing, or Worse”. The good news is we weren’t wholly wrong in our predictions (you can still trust us). The better news is we were wrong in some of our predictions.What wasn’t achievedAs we predicted, nothing on the scale of the Kyoto Protocol was produced. The European Union wanted a mandated 25%-40% carbon cut in developed nations, but the United States blocked any chance of that.One ‘achievement’ that we predicted did not come into realization: a weak carbon mandate. We had predicted the possibility that the U.S could force the world into a weak, non-binding climate treaty, setting back the possibility of a real treaty probably more than a decade. Luckily, this type of treaty did not come into fruition. The U.S. had not even one country standing beside it by the end of the talks.What was achievedThere still is a possibility for carbon caps. The deal sets a framework to create a subsidiary committee at the U ...
|
What to Expect at Bali: Nothing, Or Worse
2007-12-12 18:57:00
Written in coalition with Thoughts on Global Warming, Environmental Graffiti, Thoughts on the World, and The International Relations Blog.The Bali climate conference taking place right now is one of the most important climate conferences, if not the most important, since the conference at which the Kyoto Treaty was designed. This conference has a potential to achieve something, relative to other recent conventions.Throughout late 2006 and early 2007, global warming was high on the public’s mind, especially in the U.S. Global warming was an easy target; it could be blamed for just about any weather related disaster. And after the hurricanes of 2005 and skyrocketing oil and gas prices, the public needed something to blame. Not only that, but Inconvenient Truth was bring the real science of global warming into the eyes of the public. Al Gore was riding high. Many Floridians, who hurricanes had hit the hardest, were probably regretting a vote or two from a couple of years back.This clima ...
|
Chuck Norris Endorses Huckabee, Huckabee Surges in Polls - Correlation?
2007-12-11 19:56:00
October 22: Chuck Norris endorses Mike HuckabeeHmmm… This is interesting. Take a look at this graph of the presidential candidates poll positions in Iowa, starting with October 22, the day of the endorsement:Huckabee is in black, if you can't read the key. It appears that after October 22, Huckabee’s campaign really takes off. Hmm. Interesting.By the way: Chuck Norris doesn’t endorse presidential candidates, he ALLOWS them to be president.
...
|
Cash Money
2007-12-11 15:13:00
Days after I publish my analysis concluding the U.S. will use the NIE to work with Iran over Iraq... Well what do you know... More U.S., Iran talks next week
...
|
Iran and the NIE: Where We Go From Here
2007-12-10 19:32:00
We’ve talked a lot about the recent National Intelligence Estimate, and rightly so. It is having a tremendous impact on U.S. foreign policy on the foreign policy of any great power. What we have not yet discussed is where we go from here.In IraqAs I’ve pointed out before, the NIE can be and most likely will be exploited as a tool to solve the crisis in Iraq. To summarize, the U.S. needs Iran on board to have a politically stable Iraq, and Iran needs the U.S. to allow Iran to influence events in Iraq in Iran’s favor. You might want to read that sentence twice. The biggest obstacle since negotiations have begun stopping the U.S. from getting what it wants has been Iran’s supposed nuclear weapons program. Iran has been using its nuclear program as a bargaining chip; if they surrender on the nuclear issue, they would expect to see concessions from the U.S. on the Iraq issue.Now, the U.S. has a real chance to turn Iraq into a stable, democratic country that can be a model for the wh ...
|
On My NIE Analysis
2007-12-09 17:04:00
I would just like to say, as a disclaimer, that I have no experience in government intelligence or at think tanks or anything like that. Although, I do feel I have read enough news reports and enough news analysis so that I think I have a good feel for what's going on in the world.Shane has questioned the basic thesis of my analysis: that the NIE report will be used in negotiations over Iraq. Let me say this: This isn't why the intelligence was produced, but how it will be used.Also, the thesis makes perfect sense. The government could have hushed up the report and never had it released. Or, they could have had it released, but criticized and attacked it and ripped it to shreds. But they haven't.More on the NIE:On My NIE Analysis[POLL] Do You Think the Iranians Have a Nuclear Weapons Program?Why The NIE Should Be TrustedThe Significance of the NIEHow Will the Bush Administration Use the NIE Report?
...
|
[POLL] Do You Think the Iranians Have a Nuclear Weapons Program?
2007-12-09 16:52:00
Do you think the Iranians have a nuclear weapons program?On My NIE AnalysisDo You Think the Iranians Have a Nuclear Weapons Program?Why The NIE Should Be TrustedThe Significance of the NIEHow Will the Bush Administration Use the NIE Report?
...
|
Why The NIE Should Be Trusted
2007-12-08 12:45:00
I'm willing to trust the report for two reasons:1. It was approved by the DNI, who in turn was appointed by the President2. It doesn't make sense that Iran would have a nuclear programI will elaborate more on the second. As I've argued before, as did the NIE, Iran is guided by 'cost-benefit analysis'. In an attempt to build a nuclear weapon, they would have to recognize, before it was completed, the program would be attacked and most likely destroyed bye either the U.S. or Israel. And Iran, guided by 'cost-benefit analysis' would realize it does not have the military might to stop an attack.From this, one can draw the logical conclusion that Iran would only build a nuclear weapons program because it wants the U.S. or Israel to attack. One reason could be is that they need a reason to strike at Israel. This argument cannot stand because, first of all, Iran would not be able to carry out the attack. The U.S. and/or Israel would first take out major military installations so that I ...
|
The Significance of the NIE
2007-12-08 12:45:00
I left this out of the first post on this topic, so I'll include it now.The significance of this report is not that we can stop pressuring Iran, but 2 different points:1. Going to war with Iran would be pointless and dumb.2. Iran is guided by 'cost-benefit analysis'. They're vulnerable to international economic and political pressure.On My NIE AnalysisDo You Think the Iranians Have a Nuclear Weapons Program?Why The NIE Should Be TrustedThe Significance of the NIEHow Will the Bush Administration Use the NIE Report?
...
|
How Will the Bush Administration Use the NIE Report?
2007-12-06 20:27:00
About time I wrote about this. Iran nuclear weapons report finally released, and says Iran has suspended its nuclear weapons program, etc., here comes the analysis.It is important to consider the use of this report by the Bush Administration. Far lefties *cough* DAILY KOS *cough* have been milking this for all it’s worth. It’s a big dent in the Administration’s policy towards Iran, and the far right isn’t going to get a war with Iran. It’s huge. But in fact, I’d say this helps Bush more than it hurts him. Are you skeptic? You should be. But I won’t need a National Intelligence Estimate to convince you.Uses by the Administration1. To discredit Hillary Clinton based on her vote to classify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorists - HIGHLY UNLIKELY2. To pass the problem of a nuclear Iran on to the next administration - UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE3. As an excuse for NOT going to war with Iran - LIKELY4. To take away Iran’s biggest bargaining chip - HIGHLY LIKELYIran’ ...
|
Top 5 Reasons Geothermal Energy Works
2007-12-03 17:44:00
Part of a series5. You can have one in your backyard.The cost of having a geothermal system in, literally, your backyard, for a 4,000 square foot house is estimated to be $15,000 to $20,000. The payback would only take 5 to 10 years, as well. [reference]4. Maintenance costs are lowGeothermal pumps have very few parts and require very little maintenance. Once up and running, the system can be mostly left alone to produce energy without the need to repair parts of the system.3. The amount of land needed is lowUnlike nuclear power plants, wind farms or solar farms, a geothermal pump does not require much land. Like mentioned in #5, if you live in a suburb, you could install one in your backyard tomorrow. Larger pumps for commercial electricity generation have also been built, and those too require very little land.2. Energy output is unaffected by changing weather conditionsUnlike wind power or solar power, there will always hot magma under the surface of the Earth. It’s predictable whe ...
|
|
|