Thoughts on the World
Opinion and analysis of current events: Politics, global warming, alternative energy and more. A realistic, moderate (but slightly left leaning) look at the world. |
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Articles from Thoughts on the World |
Anti Clinton Spam
2008-01-08 15:38:00
Clinton's not such a bad candidate, so I wasn't exactly elated when I received this spam, because it also reminded me of those rumors people are spreading about Obama and Romney:RE: Coming witchcraft of Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON in politics, also. Like in the witchery, at her age of 61 years old Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON is to become overnight a candidate for a change, pulling a rabbit out of her hat. This can happen only in the witchcraft that she and her husband William J. CLINTON, former President reportedly believe in and practice. This is what comes up in the Google search under words of their names, witchcraft, satanic and/or Shamanism, subject to easy verification. The proverb goes that an old dog cannot learn new tricks. The final say belongs to the American people, casting their votes in primaries. The change is contrary to the background of Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON. This is proven by facts of her own making. Since the beginning she has bee ...
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New Hampshire Primary Predictions
2008-01-07 15:23:00
My New Hampshire predictions:DemocratsBarack ObamaHillary ClintonJohn EdwardsThis state will be another success for Obama in a string of successes. After winning in an overwhelming majority white state (Iowa), he will take the lead here. From there, he will lose the Nevada caucus but go on to win the South Carolina primary, with the state’s large African-American population. That could potentially springboard him to Tsunami Tuesday. That is Clinton’s biggest worry.Also expect Richardson to stay in the race; he’s waiting for Hispanic Nevada.RepublicansJohn McCainMitt RomneyRudy GiulianiMike HuckabeeRon PaulThe maverick is back and Romney is down. Romney lost a decent amount of his aura in Iowa, and the few Evangelical Christians in the state will be supporting Huckabee, who in turn will not receive much of the NH vote.This is Ron Paul’s chance to shine. His nonconformist, libertarian stance in a nonconformist, libertarian state will allow him to stand out of the crowd. Could he ...
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Liveblogging Iowa Caucuses
2008-01-03 19:50:00
10:55 AP: Chris Dodd drops outI think it's pretty much fair to say Obama and Huckabee have won.9:51 Obama up 7%; 1611 of 1781 precincts in9:33 Obama up 6%9:27 CBSNews projecting Obama as winner.9:24 And it's Huckabee in Iowa people, by what looks like a 5%-8% margin in front of Mitt Romney. That wasn't my prediction, but I guess Iowa must have more religious lunatics than I thought.9:10 CBS News forecasts Huckabee winning Republican caucuses.8:55 Obama passes Edwards, takes 1st; 630 of 1781 precincts reporing8:51 Obama passes Hillary to take 2nd so far; 554 of 1781 precincts reporting8:45 From http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/, the Iowa Democrat's Caucus website (I added the time signature):Kinda surprising.I'll be liveblogging by the way, for the next hour or so at least.
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Iowa Predictions
2008-01-02 18:59:00
Democrats:1.Hillary Clinton2.Barack Obama3.John Edwards4. Joe BidenClinton, Obama, and Edwards will have nearly the same number of votes, but I predict it will be in that order. Biden will come out as a surprise and do better than expected.Republicans1. Mitt Romney2. Mike Huckabee3. Fred Thompson/John McCain4. John McCain/Fred ThompsonRomney and Huckabee is a toss up, but I'm betting Romney will come out on top. After that, McCain could pull a strong showing, but so could Thompson.
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Why John McCain Will Never Win
2008-01-01 17:08:00
I almost wrote the polar opposite of this article: John McCain, Surgin’ Back? He has a lot of bipartisan support, plenty of endorsements, was right about the surge, and is a solid conservative. The only thing missing is his unpopular immigration position and funds. But that’s the thing: McCain will never succeed because of his immigration position.His poll numbers have been rising, sure, but as I’ve argued before, Republicans have no dream candidate. They are going through “fads”, almost.But there’s an even broader issue here: immigration is showing up to be the most decisive primary election issue, more decisive than the Iraq war and terrorism even. One reason for this is that all candidates have expressed their positions on the war, and it’s turned out to be a matter of Republican or Democrat; Republicans want to stay (excluding Ron Paul), and Democrats want to leave.There’s more than that: illegal immigration, many Americans feel, is actually affecting them on almost ...
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Pakistan delays election
2007-12-31 17:47:00
Pakistan delays electionIt could only be expected. In other news, Benazir Bhutto's husband and son were appointed co-chairmen of the PPP, as I predicted.
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An Al-Qaeda Assassination?
2007-12-28 17:13:00
It appears it may have been either Al-Qaeda or the Taliban who carried out Benazir's Bhutto assassination. It's not completely clear it was either group, but for our purposes, let's assume it is.Why would Al-Qaeda carry out this attack? Number one, to damage the pro-democracy movement. AQ is fine with Musharraf in power - he's barely even trying to crack down. Bhutto was and other democracy advocates are anti-Musharraf, and AQ wasn't happy about that.Number two, Al-Qaeda likes a destabilized Pakistan. It's a safer - if there's more chaos, the Pakistani government has other things to worry about rather than cracking down on terrorists.Number three, is AQ trying to steal nuclear technology or radioactive waste? A destabilized government and military won't be able to control Pakistan's nuclear technology as easily. The military is the main protector of the weapons, and they will be kept busy keeping this crisis under control, and will be even more busy if President Pervez declare ...
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Sharif's Boycott: Policy Implications
2007-12-28 17:12:00
Sharif says his party to boycott Jan. 8 election.This could help him take the lead in Pakistani democracy movement by taking such a hardline, but it makes you wonder, who will take over on the political front? I see two viable candidates: Bhutto's husband, and one of Bhutto's political rivals that I still cannot remember the name of.More importantly though, you can see why this complicates the U.S.'s anti-terrorism interests there. Sharif's boycott will totally undermine the elections unless a new, strong leader emerges from the PPP, Bhutto's party. Undermined elections = undermined Musharraf, and Musharraf will be weaker than ever.
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On Benazir Bhutto's Assassination
2007-12-27 08:29:00
The details are still emerging of this horrific event, but we can make some significant conclusions.How will this effect the PPP, Bhutto's political party? They no longer have a leader. There are leaders within the party who could take over (their names escape me), but I don't know if they have international democratic recognition.What about Nawaz Sharif, the other internationally recognized democracy activist and political candidate? This will certainly boost his popularity. Also, this is likely to fracture voters in Pakistan, who were mostly united behind Bhutto.Will this boost the chance of democracy? Bhutto's been martyred, and is likely, at least for the short term, to boost the calls for reform in PakistanThen again, one could look at this the opposite way. The attack could give President Musharraf an excuse to call for martial law.The other question to ask: Who carried out the assassination?Was it Islamists?Was it the Pakistani Intelligence Service?Was it one of her political ...
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Light Posting Ahead
2007-12-23 15:10:00
I have no idea how many posts I'll be able to get out this week, so don't expect too many.Everybody waiting for the Iowa Caucuses?Happy political season holidays!
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Mike Huckabee: Undecided Republican's New Fad
2007-12-20 19:39:00
When I think back to my days in elementary school (or grammar/primary school, for you Brits), one word will always pop into my head: fads. Power Rangers, Pokemon, etc. You know what I’m talking about.It’s one word the Republicans of Iowa and New Hampshire should keep in mind as well, as Mike Huckabee skyrockets in the polls. Mike Huckabee is just another Republican fad, during their desperate search for the right candidate.First there was Bill Frist, who decided not to run after a 2006 congressional loss. Then there was John McCain, the maverick from 2000, who fell out of style when the media focused attention on his stand on immigration. Soon after Rudy Giuliani, who was temporarily displaced by Fred Thompson before recapturing the lead. Then, more recently, Mitt Romney looked like he would be the nominee. Had his strategy of going for the early states worked? Had the GOP finally decided on a candidate?No. Huckabee plodded along at the perfect moment, taking advantage of the doubt ...
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Note to Readers////FutureGen Clean Coal Plant
2007-12-19 19:20:00
Hey - to anybody that subscribed to this RSS for political and geopolitical opinion and analysis: I've got a bunch of good posts about the 08 horse race coming up, along with a little bit of Putin and Turkey (tasty). In other words: don't unsubscribe yet!--------------------------------Chicago (TGW) – The FutureGen Alliance has selected a site in Illinois to be the location of its $1.5 billion clean coal power plant.The plant will use advanced technology to capture and sequestrate carbon dioxide from the coal underground.FutureGen includes companies from around the world and is funded by the Department of Energy to design and test technology that can turn coal into a gas that can be stripped of harmful emissions, then burned to produce electricity and hydrogen.Uncertainty about CO2 emissions “"underscores the need for a public-private venture such as FutureGen to advance cutting-edge technology," said Michael Mudd, chief executive of the alliance.Via :: Reuters
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