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Has Obama Opened Big Leads in Texas and Ohio? 2008-02-22 23:04:00 An ABCNews poll released on Thursday showed Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat in Texas. Clinton received 48% support while Obama received 47%. In Ohio, Clinton was up 7, 50-43. But those polls were taken from the 16th to the 20th, meaning of the five days, four of which were before the Wisconsin results were known, late on the 19th.A just released Decision Analyst poll, taken after Wisconsin show noticeable shifts: Obama leads in Texas 57% to Hillary's 43%. In Ohio, Obama leads 54 to 46. The margins of error are +/- 3.Comparing it to the ABCNews poll isn't statistically kosher. Nevertheless, we interestingly see 15 point swings in both. In Texas, Obama's support went up 10, Hillary's down 5. In Ohio, Obama went up 11, and Clinton down 4.h/t Political Wire ...

We're Losing Intelligence, Alright 2008-02-22 22:33:00 From the Politico:The Bush administration informed Congress on Friday that the government has “lost intelligence” because of the expiration of surveillance legislation caught in a political tug of war.“We have lost intelligence information this past week as a direct result of the uncertainty created by Congress’ failure to act,” says an underlined passage of a six-page letter signed by Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey and Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell. The letter does not give details. Congress' failure to act? Wasn't it Dubya that refuse to vote for a bill that had all of the provisions except retroactive telecom immunity? So in that case, Bush has lost intelligence. Except I wonder if he has any to lose.Meanwhile, the rightwingers are spending the last days before the apocalypse creating YouTubes which resemble their favorite TV show, 24 (h/t Sub Lumen):Here is the comparable 24 trailer.Man, I haven't seen this much devotion to a TV program si ...

McCain's Real Problem 2008-02-22 21:55:00 We all know about the NYTimes story. The affair rumor was pathetic, but the story was somewhat notable for the accusation that he offered to write letters on behalf of a lobbyist. His campaign put out a blanket denial, but that denial seems to have a few holes in it. Here's the relevant quote from the denial:No representative of Paxson or Alcalde and Fay discussed with Senator McCain the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) proceeding regarding the transfer of Pittsburgh public television station (WQED) to Cornerstone Broadcasting and Cornerstone Broadcasting’s television station (WPCB) to Paxson. But Newsweek found this nugget:But that flat claim seems to be contradicted by an impeccable source: McCain himself. "I was contacted by Mr. Paxson on this issue," McCain said in the Sept. 25, 2002, deposition obtained by NEWSWEEK. "He wanted their approval very bad for purposes of his business. I believe that Mr. Paxson had a legitimate complaint." McCain went on to say in that deposit ...

Feingold Chooses Obama 2008-02-22 17:43:00 From the The Capital Times:Sen. Russ Feingold said today that he voted for Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama in this week's Wisconsin primary and indicated that he likely will vote for Obama's nomination as one of the state's "superdelegates" to the Democratic convention this summer."I really do think that at the gut level, this is a chance to do something special" for the nation, Feingold said, adding that electing Obama represents "an enormous historical opportunity for America and for our relationship with the world."[...]Feingold said that after watching Thursday night's debate he could see "for the first time" the possibility of Clinton as a possible running mate with Obama. But said he would prefer someone like former Sen. George Mitchell, who is considered an expert on foreign policy.[...]Both Feingold and Sen. Herb Kohl declined to endorse either Obama or his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, before Tuesday's primary. Feingold said he believes there is a "pres ...

A Mandate for Change on Trade 2008-02-22 15:26:00 David Sirota again points out the trade difference between Obama and Hillary:When it came to sex, Bill Clinton made us debate the definition of “is.” Now, when it comes to economics, Hillary Clinton wants to debate the definition of “long,” claiming this week in Ohio that “I’ve long been a critic of the shortcomings of NAFTA.”True, Clinton has recently criticized NAFTA-the 1993 trade policy whose lack of labor and environmental protections encourages companies to move American jobs overseas. But cheap campaign rhetoric over a few months does not make one a longtime critic-especially considering the record.During Clinton’s 1996 visit to Texas, United Press International reported that she “touted the president’s support for NAFTA.” In her memoir, Clinton trumpeted her husband’s “successes on the budget, the Brady bill and NAFTA.” The Buffalo News reports that in 1998 she “praised corporations for mounting ‘a very effective business effort in the U.S. on be ...

In Brief 2.22.08 2008-02-22 15:03:00 Food prices will continue to rise in 2008. The US has pulled out nonessential personnel from their embassy in Serbia after Serbs, protesting U.S.’s recognition of Kosovo declaration of independence, attacked the U.S. embassy there. Recognition customarily occurs after a bilateral, not a unilateral agreement.Republican congressman, and John McCain Arizona campaign co-chair, Rick Renzi has been indicted on charges including extortion and money laundering. Ralph Nader will appear on Meet The Press this Sunday and may declare his intention to run for the Presidency. He declared his candidacy on MTP in 2004. ...

Debate Recap 2008-02-21 21:20:00 Tonight’s debate did nothing for Hillary. About 90% of the time we heard both candidate echo each other's plans and ideas. I thought Obama defended himself well on some of the common attacks—that he isn’t ready to be commander-in-chief and that his supporters are somehow delusional. Meanwhile, when given the opportunity, Hillary didn’t draw strong contrasts on the commander-in-chief issue or on the economy. Rather she chose to do so on the most petty issue of them all: the plagiarism non-issue. She used a poor line, saying that Obama was “Change you can Xerox.” She predictably got booed:The other notable moment was Hillary’s final answer which was great:The only problem (***But see update 2 below) is the part about 'whatever happens, happens.' It almost sounded like a concession. Did she realize she didn’t land the hits she needed and chose to save face?(Full debate transcript here)h/t to Memeorandum for linking inUPDATE: I agree with Marc Ambinder's take:Talk about ...

Clown-in-Chief 2008-02-21 17:56:00 I guess when you're approval rating is mired at historic lows, and you can't hit the bottle, you've got to shake it off somehow:This was today in Liberia:It wasn't the first time W. "got down." This was last year: ...

Debate Preview 2008-02-21 16:08:00 Katherine Seelye gives us a little preview of tonight's debate:Given the recent unpleasantness between the two, and Mrs. Clinton’s 10-state losing streak, it seems a safe bet that when they meet Thursday night in Austin, Tex., at a debate sponsored by CNN, the tone just might not be so jolly.[...]FIRST STRIKE Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has already signaled that she will be making stark “comparisons” with Mr. Obama; in other words, because Mr. Obama is the front-runner, expect Mrs. Clinton to make full use of her opposition research arsenal. Audiences sometimes recoil when candidates go after each other. But Mrs. Clinton has shown in past debates that she can march relentlessly forward even as the audience hurls verbal tomatoes.A CLINTON SURPRISE? Over the course of these debates, Mrs. Clinton has pursued several lines of attack against Mr. Obama. Her chief argument has been that he is not tough enough or experienced enough to serve as an effective commander in chief — or to han ...

Our Declining Moral Standing 2008-02-21 16:07:00 I wonder how many Americans who support "changing the rules" for terrorism are aware of our history, including the Nuremburg Trials. Some Nazis were found innocent, but we only bolstered our moral superiority in the world because we put the rule of law over bloodthirsty revenge. We demonstrated we were different from our enemies. Today, with the lowering of standards, in some cases to medieval levels, that line is sadly blurred. Alison Kilkenny writes at Smirking Chimp:America, the world's beacon of democracy - that shiny righteous city on the hill - has always claimed moral superiority to the war criminals of the past. America got this title because of two claims: we don't torture people and we give everyone the right of Habeas Corpus.Well, toss #1 out the window. We do torture people. Of course, the CIA claims they only water boarded people when the country was in total chaos and everyone was absolutely terrified of another 9/11. Skeptics might say that's exactly when the CIA shou ...

The Not So Big McCain Story 2008-02-20 20:39:00 The big story is a New York Times report about John McCain's relationship with a female lobbyist in the 2000 campaign. Here are some excerpts:A female lobbyist had been turning up with him at fund-raisers, visiting his offices and accompanying him on a client’s corporate jet. Convinced the relationship had become romantic, some of his top advisers intervened to protect the candidate from himself — instructing staff members to block the woman’s access, privately warning her away and repeatedly confronting him, several people involved in the campaign said on the condition of anonymity.So some advisors believed it was romantic. What was the basis of the belief? The article doesn't say.The article then talks about how McCain re-invented himself after the Keating Five scandal and became the “scourge of special interests.” It highlights how he has railed against lobbyists but has involved lobbyists in his campaigns:At one point, his [2000] campaign invited scores of lobbyists to ...

Fighting to the Bitter End 2008-02-20 19:25:00 I will never concede!It appears all bets are off for Hillary. She and her allies are trying a number of desperate tactics which will only further sully her reputation.Her supporters are launching a 527 group to attack Obama in Ohio and Texas:Allies of Hillary Clinton plan an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.They're canvassing Clinton donors for pledges of up to $100,000 in the hope of raising at least $10M by the end of next week. The money will be placed in the account of a political committee organized under section 527 of the tax code.[...]Two Democrats said that the 527 plans to run television ads and send pro-Clinton literature in all three states. One of the Democrats said that the ads will also include contrast messages against Obama.Another prong of the attack will be to continue to pursue the delegate battle through a new website, despite the fact she will lose the pledged delegate battle:This morning ...

Another Big Win for Obama 2008-02-19 23:40:00 After Super Tuesday, some were predicting a ten state sweep, but I thought that was overly optimistic. Not only has Obama swept (barring the results of Hawai'i), he has won by huge margins.Obama came away with a convincing victory in Wisconsin, one that puts Hillary completely on her heels. Obama won about 60 out of the 72 counties. The only way she comes back now is if Obama does something incredibly, astronomically boneheaded, like question the Holocaust or something.During his speech, Obama sounded like someone looking ahead towards the general election, rarely addressing Hillary, even subtly. John McCain went after Obama in his speech, but as Rachel Maddow said during MSNBC’s election coverage, McCain is using all of Hillary’s failed talking points, such as that he is the candidate of “experience.”As for Hillary, she competed in Wisconsin. The demographics were supposed to be in her favor, but Obama keeps winning white men, by larger and larger margins, and splitting women ...

Why Inspiration Matters 2008-02-19 23:17:00 Robert Creamer writing at HuffPo:It's one thing for supporters of Hillary Clinton to make the case that her experience in Washington politics would make her a better president than Barack Obama. But it's quite another to actually vilify Obama's ability to inspire as a "cult of the personality" or "nothing but words." It is particularly disturbing when serious progressive writers who should know better repeat this attack on Obama's inspirational abilities. It demonstrates a failure to grasp the principal lesson of the last thirty years of American politics.In fact, it is precisely the absence of inspiration in progressive politics that has kept Progressives on the political defensive for decades. That's because to inspire people, Progressives have to appeal to something much more important than endless lists of policies and programs. To inspire people, Progressives have to appeal to our values and to our vision for the future. [...]For three decades, Progressives have often tried t ...

It's Two-States-Who-Couldn't-Be-More-Different Tuesday 2008-02-19 15:15:00 OBAMA WINS HAWAI'I!!!MCCAIN, OBAMA WIN WISCONSIN!!! McCain also wins WashingtonWith 97% reporting, Obama leads 58-41According to exit polls reported by MSNBC:***Women were almost split, going for Hillary 51-48***White men voted for Obama 62-36With 97% reporting, McCain leads Huckabee 55-37***Old Post below***Courtesy: ABCNewsResults from Wisconsin will come in when polls close at 9PM ET. Hawaii caucuses start at 11PM ET.Stay tuned to The Liberal Journal for the results.In the March 4 battleground states of Ohio and Texas, the gap appears to be closing. In Ohio, Hillary was leading by 17, and now leads by 9. In Texas, Hillary is up by just 2 in one poll, and up by 5 in another.UPDATE: Exit polls are usually off, but there are positive signs for Obama:Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%Change vs. experience, 52% to 24%.Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%h/t to Memeorandum for linking in ...