Gawk Squawk Discussion of US politics with election results. Focus on the motivations of parties and individuals and the impact of party structure on elections. Statistics Unique Visitors: Total Unique Visitors: Outgoing: Total Outgoing: 3 0 2 233

Articles from Gawk Squawk

Superdelegate Roundup Update - New Mexico Called 2008-02-15 07:08:00 Senator Clinton has reached the 50% affirmer plateau, fueled by the calling of New Mexico in her favor. Most of the superdelegates in New Mexico had already pledged their support to Clinton. While most of the numbers remained stable, there were a few notable updates from Democratic Convention Watch. Three superdelegates who had until recently supported Senator Clinton, switched their allegiance to Senator Obama. Christine "Roz" Samuels, a former Clinton affirmer from New Jersey, became a defector. David Scott and John Lewis, former Obama defectors from Georgia, became affirmers.Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208Clinton Affirmers: 104 (50%)Clinton Defectors: 31 (14.9%)Clinton Undeciders: (35.1%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 278Obama Affirmers: 86 (30.9%)Obama Defectors: 75 (27%)Obama Undeciders: 117 (42.1%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 234Early Clinton Committers: 53 (22.6%)Early Obama Committers: 36 (15.4%)Early Undeciders: 145 (62%) ...

All Sizzle, No Steak? 2008-02-14 16:56:00 Both Senators McCain and Clinton have made statements in recent days implying that the main appeal for Senator Obama stems from his rhetorical flourishes, and that he lacks the substance to make real change.To put this claim to the test, I decided to examine the legislative records of all three Senators.  Using the Congressional Records database available from the Library of Congress, I compared the bills and amendments introduced by each Senator since all 3 have been in the Senate together, starting in January of 2005.   I've placed the short descriptions of the items each Senator introduced and passed in this Google spreadsheet.I realize that this does not provide the whole story.  I haven't given much weight to the items the Senators introduced and didn't pass, and I haven't looked at what they cosponsored.  There are also many important Senatorial activities that do not appear on the Congressional Record.  However, I think looking at the items each Senator proposed and s ...

More Superdelegate Roundup Updates 2008-02-14 08:16:00 Some more pledge data has come in from Democratic Convention Watch and has been added to the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet. Numbers from Senator Obama's areas are steady, but some superdelegates from Senator Clinton's strongholds are committing, and both her affirmer and defector numbers are up. Superdelegtes from the pre-vote areas are also committing, and there Senator Obama saw an increase of 1.9%, vs only .6% for Senator Clinton.Clinton Area Superdelegates: 199Clinton Affirmers: 99 (49.7% - a 1.5% increase from yesterday morning)Clinton Defectors: 29 (14.5% - a 1.4% increase from yesterday morning)Clinton Undeciders: 71 (35.7% - a 3% drop from yesterday morning)Obama Area Superdelegates: 278Obama Affirmers: 85 (30.6%)Obama Defectors: 76 (27.3%)Obama Undeciders: 117 (42.1%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 243Early Clinton Committers: 57 (23.4% - a .6% increase from yesterday morning)Early Obama Committers: 36 (14.8% - a 1.9% percent increase from yesterday morning)Ear ...

Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-02-13 09:01:00 State and district level results from Virginia, Maryland and DC are in and have been added to the spreadsheet.  I also added district level results from Maine and all but one district in Washington State.  While statewide results for New Mexico are still undetermined, I was able to get results for district 3 where Tom Udall is a superdelegate.  These, along with updates from Democratic Convetion Watch, have been added to the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet.Our Affirmer/Defector/Undecider Totals are now:Clinton Area Superdelegates:  199Clinton Affirmers:  96 (48.2%)Clinton Defectors: 26 (13.1%)Clinton Undeciders:  77 (38.7%)Obama Area Superdelegates:  279Obama Affirmers:  85 (30.5%)Obama Defectors:  76 (27.2%)Obama Undeciders:  118 (42.3%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates:  241Early Clinton Commiters:  55 (22.8%)Early Obama Committers:  31 (12.9%)Early Undeciders:  155 (64.3%)Despite Senator Obama's victories over the weekend and last night, he appears to be losing ground wi ...

Talking Health Care 2008-02-12 19:02:00 I've been trying to pull together some resources for comparing Senator Obama's and Senator Clinton's health care reform plans.  First, here are the links to the plans themselves:Senator Obama's PlanSenator Clinton's PlanAll analyses I've read say the key differetiator between the plans is the mandate Senator Clinton places on all individuals to get health insurance; Senator Obama only mandates that children be insured.  Everyone agrees that Senator Clinton's plan will insure more people and cost more than Senator Obama's, though there is little agreement on how many more people or how much more money.  Paul Krugman of the New York Times thinks that Senator Clinton's plan is well worth the added expense; he figures that it will cover many more people at only a slightly higher cost.  Timothy Noah from Slate thinks Hillary's mandate will make her plan unsalable to voters.  The Wall Street Journal agrees with Noah, although I don't expect them to support any health care ref ...

Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-02-11 19:17:00 I have updated the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadheet with statewide results from Maine (district level results are not yet available), and pledge updates from Democratic Convention Watch.I have also introduced new terminology: a superdelegate who votes along with the popular vote of his/her state or district is an "affirmer", a superdelegate who votes against the popular vote of his/her state or district is a "defector". A superdelegate who has not committed to vote for a candidate is an "undecider".The spreadsheet update yields the following results:Clinton Area Superdelegates: 198Clinton Affirmers: 96 (48.5%)Clinton Defectors: 24 (12.1%)Clinton Undeciders: 78 (39.4%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 218Obama Affirmers: 72 (33%)Obama Defectors: 50 (22.9%)Obama Undeciders: 96 (44%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 303Early Clinton Commiters: 77 (25.4%)Early Obama Commiters: 40 (13.2%)Early Undeciders: 186 (61.4%) ...

Meet Maggie Williams 2008-02-11 11:54:00 Yesterday, Senator Hillary Clinton appointed longtime aid, Maggie Williams, as her new campaign manager.  During President Clinton's administration, Maggie Williams served both as advisor to President Clinton and as Chief of Staff to the First Lady.  I found a video (real player, streaming) where Maggie Williams introduces a course she taught at the Harvard Institute of Politics in 2005.     I don't want to read too much into this, but I found the topic of the course amusing.  Of all the lessons learned during her years in the Clinton administration, Maggie Williams found it most important to teach students how to fight partisan investigations.  Now that she is Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, her job is to get the voters' focus away from those uglier aspects of the Clinton era. ...

Superdelegate Roundup 2008-02-10 22:16:00 I've created a spreadsheet to keep track of how superdelegates have pledged themselves coupled with the popular vote in their state or Congressional District. I hope this will help to gauge the impact that superdelegates have on the nomination. If superdelegates voted along with the general population, we would expect them to be evenly split between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. However, the current estimates indicate that Senator Clinton has between 80 and 95 more superdelegates than Senator Obama.I took my list of superdelegates from Democratic Convention Watch. This site lists all the superdelegates and keeps track of which ones have publicly committed to vote for one of the candidates. For each delegate, I indicated how their state voted, if their state has held a caucus or primary. For superdelegates who are US Representatives, I indicated how their Congressional District voted, if such data was available.I took my state level results from the New York Times. Most of ...

Tom Delay's Day 2008-02-08 11:32:00 Yesterday Senator McCain spoke to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in the first of what will be many attempts to mend fences with his party's conservatives.  While some conservatives appreciated his efforts, others used the event to further annunciate their objects to the Arizona Senator.   Most conspicuous among the latter group was Tom Delay, the former representative from Texas.  In an interview with Chris Matthews, Delay highlighted his differences with McCain on issues including gun control, immigration, global warming and campaign finance reform.  When Matthews tried to pin him down and asked him, if faced with the prospect of a Hillary Clinton Presidency, would he continue to withhold his support from Senator McCain, Delay equivocated, saying the he didn't know who would be a more dangerous President.  Most people will conclude that Delay was just speaking hyperbolically, he really sees that McCain is closer to his positions than Clinton and he is just ...

Political Fundraising 2008-02-07 21:33:00 A topic in the current presidential election that I don't believe has received enough attention is the shift we're seeing in how the candidates raise funds.  Over the past few decades,  most political funds have come from the so-called "masters of the Rolodex" who use their social networks to put on elaborate, $2000 a person, fundraising events.  Additional funds come from PACs, Unions and businesses. The 2004 Presidential race saw the beginning of the online fundraising phenomenon.  Howard Dean led the fundraising pace early, driven by small contributions from individuals online.  Dean's candidacy died with the famous scream in Iowa, but online fundraising persevered.  Today, it has been taken to new heights by Senator Barack Obama who raised $32 million dollars from hundreds of thousands of online donors during the month of January.  Reports indicate that only 3% of his donors have maxed out the $2,300 annual limit, compared to 70% for Senator Clinton, who raised $14 mil ...