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Dredgers Used Early on Yangtze as Silt Problem Worsens 2007-11-23 13:38:10 Following up on yesterday’s post and two of the posts I wrote a few months back on the issues that face shippers on the Yangtze, low bridges and silt, comes the Xinhua article Dredgers used early on Yangtze as silt problem worsens With such an important role in the development of inner China, the Yangtze is the most important river in China. If all goes as planned, APL supertankers will be able to carry goods to and from Chongqing, and that wil then allow manufacturers to move further and further inland. Well… apparently, this year’s drought has show that while it is easier said than done, and that even the best laid plans are sometimes worth little once mother nature weighs in….. For firms like China Merchants, this will become a problem as boats will be forced to a limited schedule and loads will have to be lighter in the affected areas (see map), and according to the chief of the Wuhan Branch of the Yangtze River Bureau “Silting is getting more seri ...

Countries Who Invest in Logistics Compete Better 2007-11-22 09:30:13 A couple of weeks ago, I threw out the argument that the potential success of Vietnam was severely limited over the next 5 years because their logistics infrastructure was not in place to support large amounts of FDI… Well, as it turns out the World Bank agrees with me, or at least their recent Logistics Performance Index supports that line of thinking in general. Released November 5, the news release says the report: a study based on a world survey of international freight forwarders and express carriers, indicates that facilitating the capacity to connect firms, suppliers and consumers, is crucial in a world where predictability and reliability are becoming even more important than costs. The researchers/ authors did a great job at looking at “logistics” as more than the physical movement of goods on a ship by including telecom, services , gov’t department, and a number of other steps/ pieces that need to exist for the entire process… and then they ...

Total Recall 2007-11-21 17:11:49 The list of recalled made-in-Asia products keeps getting longer and longer… It seems no one is safe anymore: to name only a few , your kids may damage their brain or become comatose when playing with their favorite toys, you can ingest poisonous chemicals while brushing your teeth should you observe basic hygiene rules, or die after eating your daily portion should you be a pet… You might also learn that your kids’ clothes were actually manufactured by Indian children, some as young as 10. For more of these pleasant stories, you can consult the US Consumer Product Safety Commission here  (for all products) or here (for toys only), the US Food and Drug Administration here, or the EU recalls list here… Should we put all the blame on Asian suppliers and stop doing business with them ? I don’t think so; these stories are only a strong reminder that international trade is risky - and that you can not pressure for lower prices on one hand, and not watch out fo ...

How the Markets Really Work. Sound Familiar? 2007-11-21 05:25:19 There are few times where I can say receiving a joke were more timely, but my friend from Beijing (now back home) passed this on the other day. While the subject of the video is centered on western markets, it could just as easily be a China market 101 video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM Thank Alex. Read Original Post Here ...

Finally… Someone With Some Foresight 2007-11-20 08:19:22 For much of the last 2 years, I have been working to convince people that the opportunities in China go far beyound the city limits of Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou.  that if a firm looks at the cities of Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi’an, and Xiamen, they will uncover that there are some very interesting opportunities there, some strong talent, and financial rewards. So when I read Chilton Investment sets sights on western China in the China Daily, I immediately saw this as a post.  According to Richard Chilton Jnr, the company’s chairman and chief executive Chilton Investment had visited Chengdu and Chongqing this year and found many high-quality companies with limited access to capital. “For most of them, we were the first western investors to visit,” he said. and al I can say is that it is about time.  while I know there are firms (more manufacturing and real estate) focused showing interest (my second tier reports are one of All Roads most heavily trafficed post ...

Are You Long or Short on WalMart? 2007-11-20 01:16:48 I was asked a couple of months back by a CBS reporters to help introduce firms who were seeing fallout from the recent product safety scandals. they were interested in finding foreign firms whose products were really culled as part of the scandal rather than those who had safety problems themselves.. and in my mind there was only one firm that I could suggest Wal Mart Before I go on, this is not a WalMart bash post by any means… just a simple analysis of what I have seen and think may happen this Christmas season as a result of the product safety scandals. When asked why I thought this, my answer was simple. the orders have already been booked, the goods have been shipped, and in many cases the payments from Walmart have been made to their suppliers… In fact, if you look at the recalls, the majority of products being recalled are either on shelves or out in the market. Mattel was able to catch some before they it the market, but I cannot remember anyone else who did. ...

Panda Punchers, Chinadependence, China Renewable Hope, and Dezan Shira’s New Book 2007-11-19 04:12:08 Panda Punchers - Inaugural Edition Like it or not, China is going to be a major focus (if not the focus) of the 2008 race to the White house and congress. Unfortunately, it is pretty clear that China will be serving as a political kick-me doll for a number of politicians, analysts, and others who really do not understand China, nor the fundamental economics of what has been going on for the last few years. Thankfully, Stan Abrams over at China Hearsay has picked up on this as well and has started a column called Panda Punchers to highlight those who are taking their shots at China… not one to just be a spectator, Stan has a few jabs of his own as well. No doubt Stan is going to be a busy guy for the next 12 months! Chinadependence: The Second UK Interdependence Report Western dependence on Made in China goods has a number of effects that the released by the New Economics Foundation, this report was one that was not only interesting, but very timely for me. Over the last 12 m ...

China Freezes Lending 2007-11-18 21:07:44 Last week I got a short message from my good friend Jay Boyle (you have seen his posts here). Simply put, it said China will stop all loans. At the time I wasn’t sure what that meant in the grander schemes of things .. and I stil don’t. But Jay put it to me in terms I could understand..  CPI must be much higher than is being reported. and HE WAS RIGHT In an announcement that is sure to make a lot of investors ask themselves how strong the foundation of the Chinese economy is.  After all, one of the primary functions of a bank is to LEND MONEY. However, with “rampant investment” flowing into China, and a number of failed regulatory, tax, and other measures, the CBRC decided to pull the emergency brake. according to the WSJ article  China Curbs Bank Loans To Cool Investment Fever A China Banking Regulatory Commission official in Shanghai confirmed that local and Chinese subsidiaries of foreign banks have been requested to ensure that loans outstanding at year e ...

Chengdu Investment News: November 18 2007-11-18 07:04:07 Chengdu became China’s happiest city The first public appraisal of China’s Happiest Cities co-sponsored by Xinhua News Agency’s Oriental Outlook magazine, the China Association of Mayors’ Chinese City Development Report working committee, the China Social Economy Institute and China Population Welfare Foundation, published its result on November 6. Ten cities including Chengdu were picked from 269 candidate cities as China’s happiest cities. Fortune Global 500 Company Accenture to settle in Chengdu next year It was learned on October 31 from High-tech Zone’s investment service bureau that Accenture, a Fortune Global 500 Company and famous multinational management and information technology consulting company, is to formally settle down in Chengdu next year. It is revealed that the project will start recently and plans to settle in Tianfu Software Park early next year, which signifies that Chengdu become Accenture’s fifth operation center in Mainland China after that ...

Hyatt Can’t Build Their Own Hotels… but Shimao Can 2007-11-18 07:04:04 Quickly following up on the impact of the recent foreign investment regulations in China, I found th article Shimao to build up 20 China hotels in the Shanghai Daily. Xu Rongmao, Chairman of Shimao, apparently commented at the opening of the Hyatt on the Bund (Shanghai) that: “As planned, we will open more hotels in cities with robust economic growth such as Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan and Fuzhou.” Interesting given they currently only have 3 (all in Shanghai). The other interesting quote was from Hyatt themselves when the manager of the new facility said it plans to open 16 new hotels in the Asia Pacific region over the next three years, with 12 of them in China. Why this piece (and the quotes) was so interesting was the timing. After all, in the new catalog, real estate investment in hotels is now a restricted item (so is management). So, for those looking at the future of hotel and hospitality in China, I would say we are going to see 12 Hyatt/ Shimao hotels…. I am ...

Home’s Where Heart Is 2007-11-17 03:02:42 Growing up, I always hear Home is where you hang your hat, but today the China Daily has put together an article on expats in the 2nd tier cities called Home’s where heart is Written by Viva Goldner, is a very interesting read and I find that many of the quotes she has pooled together represent similar things we are hearing here from the managers we have been interviewing over the last few months (perhaps that is why she quoted me). In a report aimed at foreign investors, Brubaker examined real estate investment in the three “showcase cities” of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, which fed an overheated property market with potential returns of more than 200 percent in just a few years. “As the cities most accessible to foreign businessmen, they offered a degree of familiarity unique in China, and as such, distracted investors from looking to other markets as investment destinations. Unlike second tier provincial capitals, these cities were considered to be safe ...

How Much Has China Grown? Really… 2007-11-16 15:31:46 Anyone who has lived in China at any point in the last 10 years will attest to the growth of China’s east coast cities. For many who watched China’s rise, one of the most amazing measures was GDP growth, and the fact that China has been able to sustain double digit growth for so many years. but has it? Or is China smaller than we have been lead to believe by various sources? Well, if Albert Kiedel of Carnegie’s Endowment for International Peace has read an AD report right, China may actually be 40% smaller than previously thought. In a little-noticed mid-summer announcement, the Asian Development Bank presented official survey results indicating China’s economy is smaller and poorer than established estimates say. The announcement cited the first authoritative measure of China’s size using purchasing power parity methods. The results tell us that when the World Bank announces its expected PPP data revisions later this year, China’s economy will turn out to be ...

Demands for Currency Revaluation Ad Infinitum 2007-11-16 08:54:27 Once again the helpless cry in the Western wilderness. Won’t China allow the Yuan to “strengthen at a faster rate?” No, indeed. How is doing so in China’s interest? The movers and shakers of the so-called great economic powers, who have, it is said, the power over the purses that pay for imported product — are powerless to affect any change either at home or abroad, despite ostensible regulatory control and direct market influence. This should not surprise anyone. The rate of exchange has been the subject of heated discussion for over a decade. It can be considered a scientific principle that the amount of hot air expended upon it is inversely proportional to the movement engendered. Traders, journalists, commerce department officials, Fortune 500 executives, Taiwanese investors — all have averred to me over the past decade their strong belief that a policy change is imminent. And none has come along. I have contradicted my colleagues for ...

People and Power: Moving China 2007-11-16 08:30:45 While All Roads is the medium I typically focus on pure business (and more recently some poltical issue), and Crossroads is the medium I typically use to highlight and discuss social issues, this youtube is an exception. People and Power: Moving China is an excellent film showing a bit of the underbelly of Shanghai. for many of Shanghai’s 6 million migrants, equality is something of a dream. For many of these 6 million, they work day and night doing jobs the native Shanghaiese would never do. their kids go to substandard schools. and often while risking their lives on construction sites, their are few safety nets. Without the migrant labor there would be no Shanghai. no Beijing. no economic miracle… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK8Y2S5k0Is Read Original Post Here ...

Trade jitters, anti-China sentiment rouse US voters 2007-11-16 01:29:49 I have been told by a couple of people that I might have been a little harsh on Kerri Houston in my recent post, and in my defense, I would say it is because I fear that the ongoing protectionism in the US is going to severely damage relations. I wil agree that changes to the current situation are needed on both sides, and that there is an imbalance, but my fear is that within the U.S. little is being done to address what are clearly U.S. specific issues.  Rather, the media and politicians point the finger towards China. Case in point is this article that I found today called Trade jitters, anti-China sentiment rouse US voters where Reuters is reporting on a rally in Pittsburgh. The article is a great report for me into the thoughts of Americans now, and while I am sure there are Americans who think otherwise, I would say that my concern is that the mood reflected in this article seems to be growing… and it is growing becuase the people are being fed misinformation about China, ...