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Is China Export Lead: Part 2 2007-11-07 20:54:45 Following a recent post called Is China Export Led, I recently found another paper written by Albert Kiedel of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who wraps up his summary of his article China’s Looming Crisis - Inflation Returns (PDF HERE) by saying: U.S. intelligence analysis of this overheating risk should refute the conventional wisdom that China’s growth is export-led—it is clearly domestically driven. Policy makers need to realize that China’s rapid economic rise is homegrown and sustainable. The United States should quietly remind China that harsh handling of inflation-related unrest could seriously damage U.S.-China relations—especially in a U.S. election year. Far more aggressive than Jon Anderson in attacking common wisdom, Kiedel’s audience is obviously policy makers who he see are looking at China though McCarthy eyeglasses (tinted with Lead painted Barbie)… and that gives his analysis a much different feel (both reports are well written ...

Chengdu’s Investment Update: November 5 2007-11-07 20:54:44 for those who have been following the updates from Chengdu, you should be seeing some trends. Large investments in infrastructure, consumer brands moving into the area, and lots of conventions… HSBC Bank opened its first subbranch in Chengdu On October 15, the first subbranch of HSBC Bank in Chengdu was opened to public, bringing for the first time its global financial management brand HSBC Premier to Chengdu residents. China Metallurgical Group invested in Chengdu to build a manufacturing base for mine equipment It was learned on October 15 from China Metallurgical Group Corp. that its subsidiary MCG Shijiu Construction Co., ltd recently has officially reached agreement with Qingbaijiang district government to invest in the Chengdu Metallurgical Machinery Manufactory project in the district. It is reported that the project which has an area of 103mu and planned investment of RMB 120 million is to be built into a manufacturing base mainly for complete-set mine equipments. The ...

Cisco’s 16 Billion, Getting Around in China, and Carnegie’s Take on The Big Dance 2007-11-07 20:54:44 The different transportation means in China For those that have not traveled in China, it can quite often be an adventure. I have been on buses that do 160km an hour, a train that does 400 km an hour, and several Buick regals that may have broken the sound barrier… So, when I saw this article, I thought it would be one that everyone would find beneficial. It is not filled with a crazy “I saw my life flash before my eyes” story… it just offers background on the various choices and when it is best to take a car, bus, train, or plane. A new era? What to Make of the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party While I enjoy discussing politics, I am by no means an expert on Chinese history, politics, or policy. Fortunately for me, and you, the people at Carnegie held a discussion on Oct 24 to discuss the recent party talks… and posted their discussion for us. “Moderated by Carnegie President Jessica Mathews, the event evaluated the implications of th ...

Would 6RMB/ USD Be A Good Thing?: Part 2 2007-11-07 20:54:43 Following my first post a couple of days ago, I wanted to post some of the responses I received a couple of weeks ago when I posted this question online. It is by no means scientific, but some of the answers were really well thought out, interesting, and though provoking. To start that conversation I asked the following 5 questions: 1) Is the RMB really unfairly valued? 2) What should the RMB/ USD rate be? 3) Would a 6RMB/ USD have a net positive effect for the USD? 4) What are the up/ downsides to a 6RMB/ USD for the U.S.? 5) What are the up/ downsides to a 6RMB/ USD for the China.? Now, I am by no means an economics expert, and I am not sure any of the authors of comments below are. What makes them interesting is that they are all coming from different backgrounds to report their views based on their own industries, geographies, etc. I hope you will consider their comments, and add yours at the bottom in our comments section as well. Disclaimer: I have kept the entire thread in ta ...

Mont Blanc Splashes Some Cash In Shanghai 2007-11-07 20:54:42 Nanjing West Road retail property is buy far some of the hottest around, and for years the CITIC Starbucks was an icon as it had probably the best spot in town for people watching. But a couple months ago that all changed as Starbucks closed their doors on that property and moved downstairs.  for the average consumer, this may seen odd… but for those that know real estate, that is a sign that someone was either not willing to pay street level rent or someone else was willing to pay more than market. Well, it didn’t take long for the answer to come out, and it turned out that Mont Blanc (who previously leased the space next to Starbucks inside the mall was taking over that spot, and the one about it on the second floor, to creae Mont Blanc’s worldwide flagship store. Where this gets mind boggling is that it turns out they are paying 11USD/ meter/day.  that is 11 USD … PER METER… PER DAY. Now, at 800 - 1000 meters of space, that adds up to a whopping a ...

Would 6RMB/ USD Be A Good Thing?: Part 1 2007-11-07 20:54:41 Other than product safety, there have only been a few topics of discussions surrounding China’s relationship with the world that have made it longer than the discussion of the RMB. It is a topic I have covered several times in previous posts, and it is a topic that we are currently fielding votes on (that is your hint to vote now). The RMB in my view is what I would call a political lightening rod. It is not as hot, nor does it cut as close to home as this summer’s product recalls… but various politicians have done an excellent job of tying the RMB to trade.. and trade to jobs.. and that has hit a bone with many who feel that China has unfairly valued its RMB. For this post though, I am not going to look at whether or not it is unfairly valued, nor will I look into the issues surrounding the politics of the RMB. Instead, I am going to focus on the what it… as in what if the RMB went from the current 7.45RMB = 1USD to ….say 6RMB = 1 USD (a nearly 20% re ...

Senators (Incl. Hilary) Call For ‘Sweatshop-Free Barbie’ 2007-11-07 20:54:40 Titles like this one are ones that pretty much jump off the RSS feed as I I enjoy my Free Trade Starbucks Lattes in the morning.  It was just days before that I had seen the well written piece American Imports, Chinese Deaths and the announcement that theInternational Labor Rights Forum Critiques Wal-Mart’s Sourcing Practices.. and the article of this title seemed to fit right in What I came to understand is that 14 months ago, before the prduct recalls, several Senators (with 60 cosponsors) put forward an ammendment to a previous bill that banned the importation of “convict goods” (convict goods are those goods that are made by, you guessed it, convicts). to treat “sweat shop” goods as if they were “convict goods”. Now, before I get into the specifics of the bill, I will say that the timing of this bill is interesting as I seem to remember a lot of trade rhetoric flying around.. and my impression is that some of the support for this bill w ...

China’s Economy is Running Out of Gas… Literally 2007-11-07 20:54:40 Last week, the China Auto Times printed a story (China Daily Story here) that China was considering a 100% gas tax that would raise the price of petro from 2.50USD a gallon to 5USD a gallon (I am sure you can understand why that story was buried). It was a story I had planned on commenting on, but no one else picked it up. According to the reports: The government is worried about soaring fuel consumption and worsening air pollution in already smoggy cities with an increasing number of vehicles on the road, said Shi Yaobin, director of the Ministry of Finance’s tax policy department, at a forum on China’s auto industry development held in Tianjin over the weekend. In hindsight, I should have paid more attention to it (and asked a few questions) as it appears that China is having a gas shortage (see: Business Week, IHT, and the Shanghai Daily)… What makes this most interesting is that it appears to be (1) widespread across China and (2) it is affecting big custome ...

Youtube is BACK! 2007-11-07 20:54:38 Now, would everyone please play fair with the Net Nanny, we can all continue to enjoy our favorite Youtube movies without the use of an annoying proxy server. Read Original Post Here ... Youtube

UPS Nails Down Staples in China 2007-11-07 20:54:36 Without a doubt, 2007 has been one of the most active in the logistics in China. this is primarily a result of WTO restrictions passing their final milestone on Dec 1, 2006.. but it is also a result of the business in China improving on a macro level. For me, while I found working in the logistics industry in the States boring, it is definately one of the most interesting industries that I focus on in China… and this week is already proving me right on that. The first reference is to the deal that UPS has just announced a JV with Staples (see: Staples, UPS to establish joint venture in China). Much like their partnership (ownership) of Mailboxes Etc in the U.S., this partnership (ownership) could potentially result in UPS getting a lot of street level presence in China: The first two Staples UPS Express stores will be opened in Beijing’s Central Business District. Two additional locations are planned for Shanghai by the end of 2007. With regard to what the stores will p ...

Event: WTM-ChinaContact Forum on China’s Travel Industry 2007-11-06 10:52:45 WTM-ChinaContact forum on China’s travel industry takes place on 14th November from 10:00-17:30 in South Gallery room 21/22, World Travel Market (ExCel, London). As China gets ready for its initiation onto the world events stage with the 2008 Olympics next August, ‘China – the Future of Travel’ forum looks at how the growing Chinese interest in sports is stimulating demand for outbound tourism from China. Until now, international sports events have only received media attention there when China did extremely well. Popular sports have traditionally been badminton, ping pong or volleyball where China is so dominant. In recent years and since the announcement of Beijing being the next Olympic city, attitudes towards sports have changed dramatically. This was encouraged by major marketing drives of leading international (and some domestic) sports related brands of shoes, clothing and equipment. It has happened at a time of new-found prosperity in Urban China allowing more leisure ...

4-3-2-1: China in the World Economy 2007-11-05 13:49:23 The CCPIT sponsored “Made in China 2007” seminar on Saturday featured two very impressive speakers – Dr. Shi Zhengrong, founder of Suntech Power (and one of China’s richest entrepreneurs), and Professor Lin Yifu, leading economist (and advisor to the Chinese State Council). Professor Lin started off by putting China’s economy into a global context. He noted China’s position in the following areas: • 4th in GDP • 3rd in Trade • 2nd in Foreign Direct Investment • 1st in Foreign Exchange Holdings While noting the challenges of achieving stability and growth at the same time, and over an extended period, Lin suggested that the government understood both the pressures and the need for action, and that GDP growth of around 9 percent a year would be possible over the next 20-30 years (together with appreciation of the RMB by 3-4 percent a year over the next few years). Key issues raised included the risk of deflation; over-investment in some sectors; a relatively under-d ...

Contain(er)ing Export Costs 2007-11-05 13:49:22 While China’s trade statistics continue to soar - despite creeping appreciation of the RMB, removal of export tax rebates , higher interest rates, and restriction on bank lending . But the growth in demand has also resulted in higher costs for energy and materials and, as noted by the Telegraph, shipping: “Container shipping rates are set to soar as the rate of China’s export growth shows no signs of slowing and the price of fuel continues to rise. The trade body that covers shipping lines between Asia and the US said it would be recommending increases of $400 (£192) for each 20ft container sent from Asia to the west coast of the US, and $600 for trips to other US ports. The rate per container currently stands at around $2,800 (£1,340). The move follows increases on routes between Asia and Europe, where rates have already risen by as much as 9pc in the third quarter – the biggest hike for three years – as the price of crude oil used to make marine bunker fuel edges clo ...

4-3-2-1: China in the World Economy 2007-11-05 13:49:22 The CCPIT sponsored “Made in China 2007” seminar on Saturday featured two very impressive speakers – Dr. Shi Zhengrong, founder of Suntech Power (and one of China’s richest entrepreneurs), and Professor Lin Yifu, leading economist (and advisor to the Chinese State Council). Professor Lin started off by putting China’s economy into a global context. He noted China’s position in the following areas: • 4th in GDP • 3rd in Trade • 2nd in Foreign Direct Investment • 1st in Foreign Exchange Holdings While noting the challenges of achieving stability and growth at the same time, and over an extended period, Lin suggested that the government understood both the pressures and the need for action, and that GDP growth of around 9 percent a year would be possible over the next 20-30 years (together with appreciation of the RMB by 3-4 percent a year over the next few years). Key issues raised included the risk of deflation; over-investment in some sectors; a relatively under-d ...

Contain(er)ing Export Costs 2007-11-05 13:49:21 While China’s trade statistics continue to soar - despite creeping appreciation of the RMB, removal of export tax rebates , higher interest rates, and restriction on bank lending . But the growth in demand has also resulted in higher costs for energy and materials and, as noted by the Telegraph, shipping: “Container shipping rates are set to soar as the rate of China’s export growth shows no signs of slowing and the price of fuel continues to rise. The trade body that covers shipping lines between Asia and the US said it would be recommending increases of $400 (£192) for each 20ft container sent from Asia to the west coast of the US, and $600 for trips to other US ports. The rate per container currently stands at around $2,800 (£1,340). The move follows increases on routes between Asia and Europe, where rates have already risen by as much as 9pc in the third quarter – the biggest hike for three years – as the price of crude oil used to make marine bunker fuel edges clo ...